In part I we’ve already seen several technologies at various stages with saturated/declined demands and in this part I will bring more examples such as Facebook, Dropbox, gaming market and Crocs.
Stages of technological evolution are inevitable as they are driven by those who are created by evolution by themselves. Demand for higher efficiency, demand for higher excitements, demand for communication, demand for very existence, DEMAND is a smoking locomotive of exponential evolution. We can accept it, we can follow up, we can drive it, but it is extremely hard to ignore it. I will examine trends of tech evolution by great tool of demand analysis – Google Trends.
In consumer market, the demand-S-curve is following the technology-S-curve at the beginning and changing the phase at some point, so it is hard to see the breakthrough of technology from demand, but “easy” to see the coming saturation or decline of technology by looking at the demand for variety of products (not a single one) or for representing segment as a whole. Simply said – “No pay no game”
Example of technology decline… Bad for Kodak: