Stages of technological evolution are inevitable as they are driven by those who are created by evolution by themselves. Demand for higher efficiency, demand for higher excitements, demand for communication, demand for very existence, DEMAND is a smoking locomotive of exponential evolution. We can accept it, we can follow up, we can drive it, but it is extremely hard to ignore it. I will examine trends of tech evolution by great tool of demand analysis – Google Trends.
In consumer market, the demand-S-curve is following the technology-S-curve at the beginning and changing the phase at some point, so it is hard to see the breakthrough of technology from demand, but “easy” to see the coming saturation or decline of technology by looking at the demand for variety of products (not a single one) or for representing segment as a whole. Simply said – “No pay no game”
Example of technology decline… Bad for Kodak:
Averaged (cleaned) and normalized (to 100% at max point each):
You can see a decline of ipods, saturated iphones and saturated (or even starting to deline) ipads… Well, Apple, it is time to invent something new or you are going all the way down. Ah… I forgot itunes! Well let’s see the demand for apps.
You can see that demand for apps (various types of apps) behaves similarly:
S-curve is well saturated. It can remain for a long time though (called a “cow” type of business), but we expect from Apple innovations and continuous growth, right, investors?
Generally, a nice split of technologies in mobile market: cellphones – down, smartphones – up. As for derivative, looks like it is strong positive, but second derivative looks like starting to go down… Do we see a beginning of the end for smartphones? Still not clear enough.
Maybe after Google Glass will come:
Another emerging technology, followed by demand:
Yes, this is an exponential growth…
In the next part I will try to cover additional technologies such as Gaming market, Internet providers, cloud market and more…