Well… H.N.Y. fellows! What will be this year? I am optimistic, even though nothing has been conceptually changed in economic, ethical, technological, health, geopolitical and many other conditions of the world. At least a part of the world I am leaving in… At least in my private world… Got a strong feeling of something that is going to be changed though – we have been rested for too long for the exponential world we are leaving in. Speaking of optimism and changes, got an interesting question – Is there going to be a new crisis? Let’s see…
In 2013 we got to the same level of crisis exposure as before 2008 financial crisis and it is trending down:
Interesting is that there is a periodic response to crisis – you can see it even by eye. For those who love math, I can say that Fourier transform of “Crisis” time series clearly shows the peak (skip the chart if you do not care):
The Crisis Cycle period is ~175 days (actually 165-185) throughout last decade.
What about within cycle pattern? After normalizing each period and plotting all cycles together gives the next pattern (x axis is week, y axis is crisis level comparing to the average level within the cycle, solid line is THE Crisis Pattern):
…Beautiful, isn’t it? 🙂
This is not only a financial part, but a whole spectrum of crisis. Actually financial crisis is only ~5% of overall crisis level (both – trends and ngram) while today it is x3-x5 of pre-2008 level.
Zooming out, we talk and know much more about crisis than ever in our history (with a last peak at 1990s). What is happening when we talk a lot about something – does it comes true?
Does the exponential growth of population, technology, consumption, pollution and others are causing the exponential growth in crisis frequency or amplitude? What are the major components of worldwide crisis’s?
If amount of worldwide conflicts are going down, what makes us to talk about crisis today more than during WWII? What type of horrible crisis do we experience today?
Why crisis level dropped down from 2000 to 2008 (no further info) by third (take into account several years of latency for literature response)?
…and “Financial Crisis”? It is trending up in average and in peaks. Here, the last peak is a literature about Asian financial crisis and it is not including 2009 worldwide one.
That’s all for today. Hope you enjoy it and rise some good questions 🙂
By the way, we just finished our crisis cycle and the peak of the next one should be in about 15 weeks, so yeah…