Analysis of Housing Bubble In Australia and comparison to Israel

This time I am going to analyze a housing bubble that Australia is currently facing. I did it once to model a Real Estate (RE) demand in Israel and wanted to extend it to any other country, which RE market is going through the similar behavior. Well, apparently, it is going to be Australia.

Google Trends is exposing unique data of demand changes and as a result various micro and macro-economic derivatives. I tried to use this tool to model RE market dynamics in Israel and later in other countries and found interesting behaviors of different markets. In this work we will try to understand a bit better reasons for growth in RE prices, we will try to understand better the market, compare RE markets models in different countries, will try to get tools to predict the market based on different scenarios, we will see the RE price hysteresis and will try to explain it.

First part of the work is only exposure of data with no/minimal conclusions or analysis.

Enjoy!

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Subjective Inflation

Theoretically there is no need in estimation since Inflation as “persistent increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time” can be well measured. Well… this is only theoretically. There are LOTS of issues in measuring of inflation and even in its definition. A high degree of freedom is used by governments for various manipulations and based on political considerations. Which products are part of the “basket”? How are they monitored? For what period? At which season are they measured? What is the way of averaging? Who are “typical” consumers that represent the country?  Shortly said – “Statistical fairy tale”.

Proposed method of (assuming) better indexing is “Subjective Inflation”. Unlike barely possible comprehensive objective inflation, this one is leveraging a “wisdom of the crowd” to redefine and refine the meaning of inflation. 

A “Wisdom of the crowd” is a tricky one, when there is a need in estimation of anything absolute – such as amount of candies in a vase and apparently it is pretty precise even then. 

…But it should be very effective in estimation of something that we are is deeply experiencing – inflation. 

We can ask lots of people simple questions such as “how much costs of products you are using changed for last year” and give a bi-directional reference scale, with higher precision around zero to mark. The question here is very important to avoid bias, so probably it has to be defined better. But the idea is clear. Averaging all results would give a very precise “Subjective Inflation” rate. 

The distribution can be used to identify the degree of subjective inequality or how strongly the people differ in their exposure to life expensiveness.  

Interesting to do this kind of experiment. 

Message ball

Just seen the article about the history of the Smart Logic of Chat’s “…is typing” indicator. The intention was to avoid parallel typing by both chat partners.

I thought that it might be a nice concept to create a type of sequential communication channel. Only one person can write at the given moment the message (walkie talkie  model) and it can be extended so only one message can be sent (for a long period of time) up until the receiving person does not answer. This way, the message becomes some kind of playing ball. That’s the rule – take it or leave it! 

The channel strongly drives the equally spread conversation, more interactive and more dynamic.

“Concepton” – the meaning

I think it is a good time to describe the meaning of “Concepton”.

Concepton is a device that is generating concepts. As golden Automatons of Olympus, it is opening a path to the future. But unlike a regular electromechanical machine, Concepton is powered by Bosons combined with human soul. To generate concepts it requires energy, harvested from people – simplest example might be when you sing to its collector, or draw, or think, or write a letter, it can generate a concept in response. Like an exciton of machine and soul, it is binding them together, driven by light. 

As in Asyndeton, which rhythm is accelerated by omitted conjunctions, Concepton is generating ideas and models one after another. Sometimes Gravitons are carrying those models to people. Sometimes they fly away, unheard.