19

Note: A moment for prose. It is here due to the concept of time-based conversing spiral format (and some additional nice tools). Enjoy.

I have been waiting for my death since the last shift. “This one is the next in line to a charnel” – stated a toneless tired voice above my feet after a creaky bed took away my heavy roommate. When his annoying, previously loud breedle became surprisingly imperceptible, it has also slipped away from the attention of personnel. 

Now, I could focus on my cardiac Monitor. I was afraid to give Him a name, as if it would be an inappropriate exaggeration for the insane surrounding universe. Yet, He was my companion for a long time, being the only persistent sound. We had a complex relationship – sometimes I was begging Him to continue, sometimes I was angry at Him for prompting, sometimes I imagined Him as the conductor of surrounding noises, sometimes conductor of my life, sometimes a part of me, sometimes the only remaining self in an outer world.

Friends and family are not allowed to visit due to a major outbreak and need of isolation. I often felt them, silently standing by my left side, carefully reviewing memories, making sure that nothing important is missed. His rhythm was digging lumps of memories. Clots of my past inevitably dissolved in a shared heap, while being only for a moment under the limelight. Here – sparkling black spread wings of Mantas, flying above the still blue canyon at 30meters deep right after I have lost my camera. Here – dark-red drops and orange light spot, dancing on silver blades closing on paper-white tissue of the cord, connected to my first son. Here – a black helplessness of unsuccessful anesthesia of an exhausted doctor.

Someone adjusted pressure in Ventilator and the pump has blown a new pain my lungs. I hated Him. The hate was pushed into me for a second every 3 seconds since the moment I partially woke up 19 days ago. Hated Him for the infinite pain that he has granted. Hated Him for the hope that He has enforced. Hated Him for the Stockholm syndrome that I have grown in my chest. Hated Him for the fear of feeling the hate at the very last moment of my life.

No! I love him… I love him – just like I love this recurrent sound of the monitor, just like I love everything in my life.

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COVID-19 (Coronavirus) post-incubation

[October’20 update at the bottom. Hint – really good prediction so far: Israel Covid Dead[+14days] = 0.82% of Confirmed (rsq = 0.9236)].

Those days, when you have to stay (and work from) home, you realize how interconnected our world is – because someone in China distant province eaten something bad, you and all around you (regardless where you are from) stay at home with all kids for weeks or months, gather food, cancel flights, loose savings… in best case, or life in worst. How can we say after all, that this is not a unified world we are leaving in. Enough philosophy – let’s get to the data.

There is an ambiguity about incubation period of COVID-19 and it is defined between 2 and 24 days. Definition of incubation period is “the time elapsed between exposure… and when symptoms and signs are first apparent“. There is however another important index – the duration of disease. Based on the data we can get the duration after exposure till critical period. Assuming “Total Cases” index is captured (on daily basis) after incubation period in most cases and after latent period (the time from infection to infectiousness) in some, we can run correlation between the “Total Cases” [from here: TC] signal and to “Total Dead” [from here: TD] index signal, capturing Rsq while changing time shift between them. The peak of Rsq would expose the Time-to-critical-point of the disease.

Dataset source: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (GitHub; HDX) captured at 16/3/20

Since China has changed on the way the metrics, therefore the dependency between the TC and DC got duality in behavior as we will see, so I have split the data for analysis.

Here is correlation coefficient between TC[day] and DC[day-i] and how correlation looks at peak for all the world except China:

Total Death [after 12 days] ~ 0.248*Total Cases
Total Death [after 6 days] ~ 0.09*Total cases
Total Death [after 0 days] ~ 0.03*Total cases

You can see that as we go towards peak of death index at 12 days after incubation among captured cases, the multiplier becomes scary-high – almost quarter. Really hope that is not the case and just a transitional distortion…