Well… H.N.Y. fellows! What will be this year? I am optimistic, even though nothing has been conceptually changed in economic, ethical, technological, health, geopolitical and many other conditions of the world. At least a part of the world I am leaving in… At least in my private world… Got a strong feeling of something that is going to be changed though – we have been rested for too long for the exponential world we are leaving in. Speaking of optimism and changes, got an interesting question – Is there going to be a new crisis? Let’s see…
In 2013 we got to the same level of crisis exposure as before 2008 financial crisis and it is trending down:
Interesting is that there is a periodic response to crisis – you can see it even by eye. For those who love math, I can say that Fourier transform of “Crisis” time series clearly shows the peak (skip the chart if you do not care):
The Crisis Cycle period is ~175 days (actually 165-185) throughout last decade.