Concepton

a device that is generating concepts


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Annual pattern of Demand for Laptops

As I am working on analysis of Lenovo company (hobby/investment), here is an interesting chart out of the work.

Beautiful pattern of demand for Laptops (relative demand per week, comparing to an annual average of demand) during the last decade:

Demand for Laptops - annual pattern

The pattern is very precise and stable since 2004 during most of the year except maybe some end of the year behavior inconsistency. Though there are expected two peaks of demand at winter holidays, year-to-year  variance during ww48 to ww52 is still high. Extremely high peaks at 2007 holidays, driven by Intel Core 2 Duo products wave.

You can see a clear back-to-school growth towards August from the (-10%) dead-season of Laptops marketing at Spring.

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Annual pattern of jobs searching

Are you looking for a job? Most probably this is not a coincidence. Eventually there is a clear annual pattern in amount of people searching for new opportunities.

Here is a normalized relative pattern of amount of people searching for a jobs for a last decade.

Data is based on worldwide statistics based on millions of people and can be used as a model for Human Resource organizations, headhunters or just people that are part of the trend.

X-axis is weeks (1-52), Y-axis is growth in jobs hunting comparing to the average of the year.

X-axis is weeks (1-52), Y-axis is growth in jobs hunting comparing to the average of the year.

We see a nice and clear behavioral pattern that shows a gradual decline throughout the autumn to the annual minimum of job searches by the end of the year and the slight spike before holidays (people that remind that they need money for presents?). Then enormous spike to the annual maximum at the beginning of the year (motivation to change things in the new year? worldwide layoffs pattern?) and then spring decline followed by growth to a summer “hill”.

Same, but with average profile (Rsq > 0.8):

WW Job Search Profile

What can I say? In my company this profile would be one of base components of HR organization budget. I find it cool.


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Crisis

Well… H.N.Y. fellows! What will be this year? I am optimistic, even though nothing has been conceptually changed in economic, ethical, technological, health, geopolitical and many other conditions of the world. At least a part of the world I am leaving in… At least in my private world… Got a strong feeling of something that is going to be changed though – we have been rested for too long for the exponential world we are leaving in. Speaking of optimism and changes, got an interesting question – Is there going to be a new crisis? Let’s see…

In 2013 we got to the same level of crisis exposure as before 2008 financial crisis and it is trending down:

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Interesting is that there is a periodic response to crisis – you can see it even by eye. For those who love math, I can say that Fourier transform of “Crisis” time series clearly shows the peak (skip the chart if you do not care):

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The Crisis Cycle period is ~175 days (actually 165-185) throughout last decade.

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