Concepton

a device that is generating concepts


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Antisemitism and Antiisraelism dependency

Oh, c’mon… Not once more – those Israelis can find the antisemitism everywhere!

Gods know, I hate referring to antisemitism even though it is there. Probably this is some kind of denial. Also, since I am leaving in Israeli bubble, I am less exposed to the entire or opposite side of the informational spectrum that foreigners got to, even though I am reading Russian and English press from time to time. By the way, this is in a very high degree, thanks to Google/Facebook and others that are pushing the boundaries of radicalism due to over-personalization and ghettos of social clustering.  BUT here comes a small check +minimal amount of comments. Data for your consideration:

Google trends for “I hate Israel” (IHI) and for “I hate Jews” (IHJ):

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What can we see?

IHI as a constant is kind of new thing (staring ~ end of 2010). For each war there is an IHI peak (for example first big peak is 2006 Lebanon war, second peak is Hamas/Israel war at December 2008 etc).  While previously each war caused peak not only in IHI but in IHJ as well, starting 2011, IHI peaks became less impacting IHJ. So there is some transition in perception.

To clean a bit peak and investigate the trend, I did 3 month averaging and put IHI vs IHJ with a small leg of one month (IHJ after IHI) till 2010:

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Since the post perceptional change at 2010, the situation is as following (max Rsq at leg of 3 month now):

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Even though it is not a direct dependency, for example spike in IHJ at end of 2011 (red) and high IHI (Operation Pillar of Defense) at end of 2012, overall behavior is common for both.

So if the behavior is not going to change, even though the highest peak of IHI after recent war is going to cause the increase in IHJ in about 2-3 month, overall it is not going to be proportional and fade within a bias of IHJ. Well – we’ll see.

And… how can we finish without good news – the clear dramatic x10 decline of IHJ for the last decade! Always look on the bright side of life!

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Cancer Trends analysis (US/Israel/Russia+)

Cancer. This is one of the hardest problems of human being today. Huge amount of effort is spent to develop proper treatments for different types of cancer. There are studies that show degradation in cancer, but they are based on partial statistical sample. Can we get a better picture based on all exposed population? I do not know. Let’s try though and see which direction the cancer is moving. Continue reading


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Crisis

Well… H.N.Y. fellows! What will be this year? I am optimistic, even though nothing has been conceptually changed in economic, ethical, technological, health, geopolitical and many other conditions of the world. At least a part of the world I am leaving in… At least in my private world… Got a strong feeling of something that is going to be changed though – we have been rested for too long for the exponential world we are leaving in. Speaking of optimism and changes, got an interesting question – Is there going to be a new crisis? Let’s see…

In 2013 we got to the same level of crisis exposure as before 2008 financial crisis and it is trending down:

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Interesting is that there is a periodic response to crisis – you can see it even by eye. For those who love math, I can say that Fourier transform of “Crisis” time series clearly shows the peak (skip the chart if you do not care):

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The Crisis Cycle period is ~175 days (actually 165-185) throughout last decade.

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